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Will coffee prices rise with global warming?
For as long as they can recall, the coffee growers in the valleys between the steep volcanic peaks here started the annual harvest in late September - until this year. An odd rainy season forced the farmers of the Santa Anita La Union Cooperative in this town in Guatemala's highlands to start picking Coffee Beans in the end of August. As thunder rumbled in the distance, a technical assistant for the cooperative Mynor Huerta said "Instead of raining constantly and slowly, it is raining very hard for short periods of time. And the temperatures are hotter, so that means the fruit, the coffee, is ripening very fast." . While this year's early harvest may prove to be a climatic anomaly, researchers hypothesize that it could be foreshadowing for coffee in the region. Central America is very susceptible to climate changes, and similar circumstances that make South America home to some of the world's finest gourmet coffees make it vulnerable to climate change. Its mid-range temperature are already rising, its predictable rainy season is becoming abnormal, and pests and fungi could invade altitudes where could not have lived at prior to change. Although seemingly non-problematic, small increases in temperature and slight changes in rainfall are predicted to cause major problems in coffee growing areas. While the conditions might make good-quality coffees more lush and less expensive for a few years, the price will eventually go up as availability wane in the long term, theorists said.
Farmers in Central America may need to move their crops to higher elevations where less land is accessable because of climage change. Diaz, a Costa Rican economist who is part of a four-country research project aimed at documenting the effects of climate change on small coffee farmers, said "Farmers are going to have to try to squeeze onto that land." Farmers would be overpowered by the changes, and eventually be required to replace their coffee trees with another crop to survive. gourmet coffee as the world's second-largest traded commodity behind petroleum, supports around 25 million growers and 100 million people around the globe once family members are added. Climatic evidence is supporting them. A recent study by the Center for Tropical Agricultural Research said just a 1 degree Celsius rise in Brazil's Sao Paulo coffee growing region, for instance, would cause a decline in coffee production worth more than $113 million.
Central America is one of the regions likely to get both drier and hotter in upcoming decades. In the short term, this could actually assist the few farmers growing good-quality coffee beans at high altitudes.
A researcher that is part of a team carrying the regional climate change study for Guatemala's Universidad Del Valle, Edwin Castellanos, said "As a scientist it pains me to say it, but the conditions for coffee growing in many of the highland areas, where the best gourmet coffees is grown, could be better for coffee in the coming years."
About 150 million pounds of that coffee was grown at elevations of lower than 4,500 feet above sea level, lands that are likely to be hit by climate change. Change in temperature is considered a monumental threat to the way of life for the farmers of Santa Anita, which sits about 4,000 feet above sea level.
"If we have to pick all the coffee in October and November, we won't have enough help because our children will still be in school," said Mariola Cifuentes, a coffee grower in the cooperative. And we can't afford that." Cifuentes said the increase in temperatures has led to the increase of pests and of a fungus known as koleroga. As a result, the farmers - who raise Fair Trade- and organic coffee - have had to spray fungicides and pesticides more frequently. In some cases, the trees could be trimmed to release trapped humidity. But adapting their farms to the changing climate will only last so long. "It's a problem of increased extremes," Castellanos said. "Farmers in these regions will see hotter temperatures, longer periods of drought, more heavy downfalls, which can damage crops, and more storms."
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I like gourmet coffee, flavored coffee
GUATEMALAN ORGANIC SMALL COFFEE GROWERS AT-WORK
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